I’ve done a slight update on my previous graph to add the max and min number of weekly deaths over the previous five years (dotted grey lines). The idea is to provide some idea of the typical range of deaths in a given week. (The range between the mean and the max and min is not symmetrical because I’ve used raw figures rather than standard deviations.)
If you take the difference between the 2020 weekly deaths and the max of the corresponding week in the previous five years, then the number of excess deaths is reduced from about 46,500 to more like 40,200, which is still about 61% higher than was reported at the time, although not as high as the 86% that you get when you use the five year average as your benchmark. I think the 61% figure is extremely unlikely as 2020 was actually running below the average until the outbreak of the pandemic, but still, it gives some indication of the likely range and uncertainty in the figures.
The solid blue line is actual number of weekly deaths in 2020 in England and Wales.
The solid grey line is the 5 year average.
The dotted grey lines are the max and min from the same week in the previous 5 years.
The dotted blue line is the difference between the 2020 figure and 5 year average.