Weekly covid-19 Update

This is my weekly reminder of the true level of deaths in the UK from covid-19, based on figures from the Office of National Statistics. The good news is that the peak of the outbreak is clearly past. The bad news is that the number of deaths are still much larger than being reported in the daily figures, even with the newly included care home deaths.

The grey (middle) line shows the average number of deaths for each week, averaged over the last five years. The blue (upper) line shows the actual number of deaths this year, and the green (lower) line shows the difference.

Since the outbreak began, there were about 46,500 excess deaths. Adding 10% for Scotland and NI brings this to about 51,200. The cumulative number of covid-19 deaths reported on that date was 27,510. The actual number of deaths was therefore about 86% higher than reported.

Last week’s figures were 80% higher than previously reported, so the daily reporting has actually managed to get worse, despite widening the inclusion criteria.

Here’s a quick comparison of the UK (blue) against Spain (green), with daily number of deaths per 10 million population. And a reminder of how Taiwan and South Korea have faired (both grey).