Rise in Covid Deaths is Reversed

I thought I’d share this graph based on today’s ONS statistics. The red line is excess deaths over the previous 5 year average (blue is total deaths, solid grey is avg). As you can see, in the week to 4th Sep, there was a very dramatic fall in the number of excess deaths in England and Wales, reversing a previous trend upwards.

This is very good news. Let’s hope it continues.

2 thoughts on “Rise in Covid Deaths is Reversed

  1. There is an interesting aspect to this, which is that the total deaths line has fallen, but the average line goes up. Hence the difference gets a doubly whammy. I don’t know why this might be (the average going up), we’re not into winter yet (*). I wonder if we are seeing the results of the huge peak, that sadly there are fewer vulnerable people around at the moment.

    In any case, these results do seem to be generalised in other places. The rates of hospital admissions and deaths per infection are seemingly falling. Again, the same reason might be the cause, but it does offer a huge degree of hope for a manageable future with coronavirus still present.

    Thanks as always for presenting the data.

    (*) Looking outside, is that the single most obvious thing anyone has ever said here?


  2. I second Steve’s thanks for the post and the analysis, and I think he might be right in suggesting that, sadly, many of the most vulnerable may have already succumbed to the virus. I also think that those like me, who the stats show are much more at risk than our children and grandchildren, should try particularly hard to stay safe so that they can get back to normal life, and so that we trouble the NHS as little as possible.

    Having said that, this is not a trivial disease, even for the young. A friend of my eldest daughter, in her mid-30s, caught it in March, and is still suffering from severe shortness of breath and chronic fatigue. I am all for returning to normal life as soon as possible, but we all need to learn how to carry out personal risk assessments as part of the process.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s